In this episode Michael and Sylvain unpack food inflation trends, the fallout from Canada’s Food Price Report, instability in Canada’s chicken supply chain, and a series of Tump tariff and trade ripple effects including a $15 billion dollar bailout for U.S. farmers. Then recorded live at the Coffee Association of Canada conference they welcome Carman Allison, Vice President, NIQ Canada, who delivers rich data on coffee inflation, consumer vulnerability, demographic shifts, multicultural buying patterns, GLP-1 demand impacts, and growth opportunities for retailers and brands.
This episode of The Food Professor Podcast opens with Michael and Sylvain analyzing the most pressing developments shaping Canada’s food and retail landscape. Sylvain reflects on the extraordinary national and global reach of Canada’s Food Price Report, which this year generated unprecedented media attention and continues to influence retailers, manufacturers, governments, and consumers planning for 2026. They dig into the structural issues behind Canada’s complex food-tax regime, discuss why the GST holiday changed how Canadians think about food pricing, and explore the broader economic forces influencing consumer behaviour.
The hosts then turn to one of the most surprising developments of the season: mounting instability in the chicken sector. With nine consecutive missed production cycles, increased reliance on imports, and confusion around border testing, the system designed to provide stability is under strain. Sylvain breaks down why this matters for households, grocers, foodservice operators, and the broader supply chain—especially as chicken remains Canada’s most-purchased protein. The conversation then expands southward to U.S. agricultural subsidies, tariff battles, Costco’s legal challenge over tariff refunds, and the potential fallout of proposed U.S. tariffs on Canadian fertilizer.
The second half of the episode shifts to a live interview recorded at the Coffee Association of Canada conference, where Michael and Sylvain sit down with Carman Allison, Vice President, NIQ Canada, one of the country’s most respected consumer data voices. Carman previews his conference keynote, “Navigating Disruption,” and explains why coffee inflation is reshaping buying behaviour even among loyal consumers who consider coffee essential. He outlines NIQ’s segmentation showing that 29% of Canadian households are now financially vulnerable—and how this is affecting deal-seeking, product substitution, and consumption patterns.
Drawing on NIQ’s expanded Omni Shopper Panel, Carman describes how rapid multicultural population growth is shifting beverage preferences, why Generation X now holds the greatest spending power, and how value-seeking is reshaping entire store categories. He also reveals early evidence of the GLP-1 effect, where households using weight-loss or diabetes medications show measurable declines in food consumption.
Carman closes by highlighting growth opportunities in instant coffee, protein-and-coffee hybrids, Maple-forward flavour innovation, and the continued rise of home-meal-replacement programs. His insights give retailers and suppliers a grounded, data-rich roadmap for growth in a highly price-sensitive marketplace.